| Abraham Lincoln had an uncanny ability to
predict behavior. For example, when Lincoln was President, he told one of his associates
how every member of Congress would vote on a particular bill. To make the point, he wrote
down what their votes would be. Sure enough, when the votes were tallied, Lincoln was on
target for virtually every vote cast.
How did he do this?
No magic or superhuman powers were involved. Lincoln used
resources that are within the reach of anyone, and with a bit of practice, you can use
them effectively, too.
In general, behavior can be predicted in terms of a
person's interests, group identity, character, and unconscious needs. Entire books have
been written on this subject, but here's a brief overview:
One: Interests
Interests have to do with one's own benefit or advantage;
the focus is on the basic question, "What's in this for me?" If you're trying to
predict a person's (or a group's) behavior, evaluate whether they will experience profit
or loss, pleasure or pain from the outcome. Lincoln dealt mainly with politicians and
lawyers, who habitually make these kinds of calculations. However, this approach is not
foolproof because humans are more than human calculators. People sometimes behave
irrationally -- that is, they do not behave in their own best interests. So, you will have
to include more than interests to become good at predictions.
Two: Group Identity.
What groups do the individuals belong to or identify with?
Do they think of themselves as Republicans or Democrats, liberals or conservatives,
independents, Christians, gang members, labor or management? Sociologists call this
"reference-group behavior." Ralph Waldo Emerson, a contemporary of Lincoln whose
work Lincoln knew about, wrote: "If I know your sect, I anticipate your
argument." Lincoln certainly took political affiliation (i.e. "sect") into
the aforementioned calculation. You can see this principle at work by looking at the party
affiliation of the votes that are cast for particular bills in Congress. Whenever there is
a deviation from sect affiliation, the decision will usually be based on interests.
Three: Unconscious Needs.
Sigmund Freud discovered that behavior is sometimes neither
rational nor irrational, but arational. Lincoln, of course, lived long before Freud, and
did not use this concept as such in his predictions. But if you want to become a skillful
forecaster, be aware that some behavior will seem to come out of nowhere. The source may
be memories of experiences that are buried deep in the individual's unconscious
mind--buried, but not dead.
Four: Character.
Is the individual basically honest or dishonest,
industrious or an idler, kind or a bully? An honest man may yield to temptation, but a
dishonest man will look for it. An industrious man will take pride in his work. An idler
will take pride in avoiding it. A kind man may be unkind, but regret it; a bully will be
unkind and enjoy it.
Simply put, character is a blend of genetics and deeply
rooted habits. Emerson wrote: "I suppose no man can violate his nature... A character
is like an acrostic or Alexandrian stanza; read it forward, backward, or across, it still
spells the same thing."
Lincoln's character was well known. Lincoln was Honest Abe.
He got this name because people learned that if you dealt with Lincoln, he would not
deceive you or cheat you.
If you want to predict behavior, do what Lincoln did, and
observe carefully to see if the person is basically honest or deceitful, a giver or a
taker, diligent or careless. Once you understand a person's character, you will seldom be
surprised by their behavior.
One quick story about character. Once there was a scorpion
that wanted to cross a river. Seeing a frog, the scorpion asked the frog if he could ride
on his back across the river.
"I can't do that," replied the frog,
"because if you rode on my back, you would sting me and I would die."
"Why would I sting you?" answered the scorpion.
"It is not in my best interest to sting you. If I stung you, we would both
drown."
"That's true," said the frog, who then allowed
the scorpion to climb on his back.
In the middle of the river, the frog felt a sharp sting in
his back.
"Why have you stung me," screamed the frog in
pain. "It is not in your best interest to sting me."
Replied the scorpion: "Because it is my nature to
sting. You knew what I was when you let me ride on your back." |
|
