| There's a lot of anxiety and confusion
within both the business and consumer communities right now but, as I've always said, it's
usually wiser to take the long view.
This week I'm going to do something a little different.
Instead of wallowing in the current crisis, let's take a look at what serious students and
observers say is likely to come about in the worlds of business and technology within the
next few years. Whether you find these predicted developments exciting or depressing, they
will nevertheless provide opportunities to the savvy business person. What follows are
some thought on what we can expect.
The spread of capitalism and global commerce throughout the
world is expected to spawn a billion millionaires throughout the world by 2025. While
increased trade and technological innovation are responsible for much of this boom, this
richer society will also place a greater strain on the aforementioned resources such as
water and oil.
I have written about this next item for many years and
I’m finally seeing real activity. Look for the fashion world to become wired as
technology revolutionizes the textile and fashion industries.
In an unusual marriage, scientists and fashion designers
are working together in the burgeoning field of smart fabrics and intelligent textiles
(SFIT) to develop color-changing and perfume-spewing jeans and other innovations that are
simply too far out (and unbelievable to me) to even mention here. But look for
combinations such as iPods and running shoes or wristwatches that serve as digital
wallets.
Experts in this field say there already exists a $400
million market for these products and that these smart fabrics will revitalize and
revolutionize the textile industries in the U.S. and Europe. Biggest problem at this
point: powering these high-tech gizmos.
If you are frustrated by the accelerating growth of
technology you might find this next prediction quite believable. Because the pace of
technology is growing faster than many humans are able to assimilate, more decisions in
the future will be made by non-human entities instead of flesh and blood people.
Robots with artificial intelligence working in network
teams will soon be making financial, educational, medical and even political decisions on
our behalf. It may seem scary but the reason is pretty straightforward. Technology is so
complex that the competency of human workers is just not keeping pace well enough to avoid
disaster due to human error.
So with all these great opportunities hanging out there
like ripe fruit, how do experts believe business will take advantage of them? Futurists
expect that small companies rather than the big multi-national corporations will soon
dominate a global economy marked by an ever-increasing rate of change.
Smaller companies are simply better adapted to shifting
direction quickly and cashing in on these new opportunities. The downside is the life-span
of these new companies is becoming much shorter, often as little as 10 years or less.
Nevertheless, these companies create over 90 per cent of the new jobs. The average number
of workers for each company in the U.S. today is seven. Within 20 years that number may be
down to three. When I started out, home-based business were the exception but these days
– and in the future – working from the home and being a one-man company will
become part of a major global trend. Again, technology and the ability to cash in on
opportunities are the reasons. Advantages include quick startup, low costs, no commuting
and more time with family. I guess everyone around the globe has finally figured out this
is a good idea!
There will be many new opportunities in the energy field in
the coming years.
The first is hydrogen fuel cells. By 2010, these expensive
energy producers are expected to be cost-competitive and by 2012 fuel cell power will cost
approximately $400 per kilowatt. Today’s internal combustion engines cost about
$400-900. Experts believe that hydrogen fuel cells will power cars and even allow each
home to have its own non-polluting energy source.
While certainly only a work in progress, it’s expected
that the harnessing of ocean currents may surpass wind as an energy source in the near
future. Ocean current-drive turbines can generate four times the power of windmills. At
just one site in the Channel Islands off France the potential power output exceeds that of
three nuclear power plants.
And a few quick predictions on computers . . . by 2010,
supercomputers will have the same power as the human brain . . . in the 2010s, broadband
access will be available almost everywhere . . cell phones will be built into clothing and
will project sounds directly into ears of their users.
Copyright 2008 by Dennis Hessler |
